Mortgage applications trend downward

October 22,2021 | By Erickson Ocasio

Latest survey reveals fourth consecutive week of decline

Total mortgage applications slumped 6.3% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey for the week ending October 15. On an unadjusted basis, it went down by 6% on the Market Composite Index.

Similarly, MBA’s Refinance Index saw a 7% decrease from the previous week – 22% lower than it was the same week a year ago. This marks the fourth consecutive week of its decline as rates have increased, bringing it to the lowest recorded level since July.

“The 30-year fixed rate has increased 20 basis points over the past month and reached 3.23% last week – the highest since April 2021. The 15-year fixed rate increased to 2.54%, which is the highest since July,” said Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at the MBA.

The refinance shares of mortgage activity went down from 63.9% to 63.3% this week, while the adjustable-rate mortgage share decreased to 3.3% of total applications.

Both the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted Purchase Index also declined 5% from the previous week.

“Purchase activity was 12% lower than a year ago, within the annual comparison range that it has been over the past six weeks,” Kan said. “Insufficient housing supply and elevated home-price growth continue to limit options for would-be buyers.”

Meanwhile, the FHA share of total applications remained unchanged from 10.2% the week prior.
On the other hand, the VA share of total applications went up from 10.2% to 10.4% while the USDA share of total applications from 0.4% to 0.5%.

 
Tags: Housing, Mortgage, Finance

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Mortgage applications revert to downward trend

March 26,2022 | By ERICKSON J OCASIO

It was a short-lived increase last time around.

The prior week’s results ended the four-week streak of a decline in mortgage applications, but the usual trend continued for the week ending March 18.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications dropped 8.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist at the MBA, said the association had forecast mortgage rates to trend higher through the course of 2022.

“Rates on 30-year conforming mortgages jumped by 23 basis points last week, the largest weekly increase since March 2020. The jump in rates comes as markets moved to price in a much faster pace of rate hikes, as well as expectations of fewer MBS purchases from the Federal Reserve,” Fratantoni said. “With mortgage rates now at 4.5%, compared to rates at or below 3% not that long ago, it is no surprise that refinance volume has dropped by more than 50% compared to this time last year.”

Likewise, both refinance and purchase applications were also 14% and 1% lower than the previous week, respectively. Both percentages are significantly lower compared to the same time last year.

The refinance share of mortgage activity also decreased to 44.8% from 48.4% the previous week. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage share increased to 6.4% of total applications.

Fratantoni said this is because first homebuyers continue to be challenged by the increase in house prices and even more rapid increases in mortgage rates.

“Purchase application volume was down slightly for the week, with a larger drop in FHA and VA purchase volume, and a small decline in conventional purchase loans,” Fratantoni said. “Repeat homebuyers, who are more likely to use conventional loans, benefit from the gains in home equity realized on a sale which can be used to fuel their next purchase, even with rates moving higher.”

 
Tags: Mortgage Credit, Mortgage Finance

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Mortgage applications continue downward trend as rates hit 21-year high

October 31,2022 | By ERICKSON J OCASIO

Mortgage demand remains lackluster.

Mortgage application activity has remained at its slowest pace since 1997 as rising interest rates continue to depress demand for home loans.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage application volume dropped 1.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the week prior. Unadjusted, applications were down by 2% week over week.

“Mortgage rates increased for the 10th consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate reaching 7.16%, the highest rate since 2001,” said MBA deputy chief economist Joel Kan.

Refinance application activity was virtually unchanged, posting a 0.1% gain from the previous week. Consequentially, the refi share of mortgage activity grew five basis points to 28.8%. Meanwhile, purchase applications fell 2% to the slowest rate since 2015 – 42% behind last year’s pace.

“Despite higher rates and lower overall application activity, there was a slight increase in FHA purchase applications, as FHA rates remained lower than conventional loan rates,” Kan said. “MBA’s forecast expects both economic and housing market weakness in 2023 to drive a 3% decline in purchase originations, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24%.”

MBA anticipates total mortgage origination volume to decrease to $2.05 trillion in 2023, down from its $2.26 trillion forecast in 2022.

“MBA’s forecast calls for a recession in the first half of next year, driven by tighter financial conditions, reduced business investment, and slower global growth,” Kan said. “As a result, the unemployment rate will increase from its current rate of 3.5% to 5.5% by the end of the year. Inflation will gradually decline towards the Fed’s 2% target by the middle of 2024.”

 
Tags: Mortgage Credit, Mortgage Finance

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