Inflation hits 40-year high – what does that mean for mortgage rates?

Freddie Mac reveals updated US mortgage rates.

The average 30-year US mortgage rate edged up on Thursday after a three-week hiatus as inflation soared to its highest level in four decades last month.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported a 14-basis-point increase in the 30-year fixed-rate home loan, jumping to 3.69% for the week ending February 10. A year ago, the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 2.73%.

“The normalization of the economy continues as mortgage rates jumped to the highest level since the emergence of the pandemic,” said Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) and the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) also posted week-over-week gains. The 15-year FRM rose 16 basis points to 2.93%, while the five-year ARM climbed nine basis points to 2.80%.

Khater pointed to the combination of rising inflation and an improving job market as the main driver of this week’s mortgage rate hike. US inflation hit a 40-year high in January, accelerating to a 7.5% annual rate, the Labor Department said Thursday. The pace of labor market recovery also grew stronger last month, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 467,000.

“Rate increases are expected to continue due to a strong labor market and high inflation, which likely will have an adverse impact on homebuyer demand,” Khater said.

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